1st Round Picks...the pick that's supposed to be the "main cog" of your fantasy football team. The "franchise player" so to speak. Whiff on this pick and you'll find yourself at a huge disadvantage from the get go. Or is it? Can you whiff on a first round pick and still draft well enough with the rest of the draft to salvage your team? We'll look at the first 3 year's of 1st round picks and see how exactly important the first round has been in our league.
Pick #1
2010- Chris Johnson
2011- Adrian Peterson
2012-Aaron Rodgers
Overview- Having the #1 overall pick is big time pressure as the expectations are raised since you have the pick of the "cream of the crop". In our first year, Drew took Chris Johnson at #1 and rode him to the finals. Outside of his QB, he was the highest scorer on his team so this was definitely a home run pick and one of the biggest reasons Drew made the Championship game. The next season Matt took Adrian Peterson. Unfortunately, Peterson got hurt and though he finished as a top 10 running back (8) 7 running backs ended up having a greater impact that season and Matt finished with a 5-8 record en route to a 9th place finish overall. Last season Mike "shocked" the league and took Aaron Rodgers #1 overall. Here's where you can look at it a couple ways. Was Rodgers an insane reach? No, not at all. In fact, last year was the "Year of the QB" so to speak and almost half the first round were QB's. Rodgers finished with the 2nd most fantasy points in the league and with a #3 overall ranking. However, it's all about relative value. There were 11 QB's that finished in the top 16 overall last year. Maybe going with a RB there would've been much more value, then getting a position in really deep position. Mike did make the playoffs, however maybe he could've made it a little farther had he gone with another position at the #1 overall pick.
Hits/Misses Ratio- 2/1- I'll only include Peterson as a miss because of the injury.
Pick #2
2010-Adrian Peterson
2011-Chris Johnson
2012-Ray Rice
Overview: Kenny had #2 in 2010 and took Adrian Peterson. He would trade him to me for Arian Foster and Greg Jennings, and on my team helped me make the playoffs and win 3rd place. In his first ever draft Dad took Chris Johnson (coming off a holdout) over guys like Ray Rice, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy. Johnson was HORRIBLE compared to his draft position. 16 running backs finished ahead of him and he finished with a 43rd ranking overall. How Dad made the playoffs whiffing that badly was surprising indeed. Last season Leland took Ray Rice, but shipped him to me. He was slightly disappointing compared to his draft position. I ended up trading him to Kenny. He still finished top 6 at the position, so I wouldn't call a complete bust, but the team that traded him won the title, while me and Kenny both finished out of the playoffs with him in our roster.
Hits/Misses Ratio 2/1- Rice wasn't horrible enough to consider a bust the 2 though he did underachieve for his standards. Chris Johnson though..ugh yeah not worthy of a 1st round pick much less #2 overall.
Pick #3
2010-Maurice Jones Drew
2011-Jamaal Charles
2012-Arian Foster
Overview- MJD was Matt's inaugural pick at #3 in 2010. He led all of Matt's non QB Skill Players in points scored and helped Matt to a Playoff Berth. Zach took Jamaal Charles at #3 and an early season injury derailed Zach's season from the get go. He never recovered. Matt once again picked #3 and got Arian Foster who helped him to a 1st place regular season finish and another playoff berth.
Hits/Misses Ratio 2/1- To me a player is successful if he's a big time contributor to his team. I can't remember what MJD finished overall in 2010, but he was Matt's best offensive player that season outside of his QB's. Jamaal Charles is proof that a high pick not panning out due to injury/underperformance can kill your season dead. Zach was never a real threat after losing Charles. Foster was another hit at 3 for Matt, and maybe had Matt made a trade with his overabundance of RB"s he might have won his 1st playoff game with the team he had.
Pick #4
2010-Ray Rice
2011-Ray Rice
2012-LeSean McCoy
Overview-Here's something crazy, I ended up with all 3 of these guys the year they were drafted at the end of the day. Albert took Rice at 4 and would trade him to me late in the season. I got stuck with a three headed Monster of Rice/Peterson/McFadden (believe it or not scored more points than Ray Rice that year) which was great up until you bench the wrong guy. Albert would solidify the rest of his team with that trade and end up winning the title. Again Rice went #4 to Leland and I traded for him yet again. Rice was the #1 ranked running back in 2011 by a comfortable margin and he helped me make the finals in 2011. Kenny took Shady after his 20 TD season and unfortunately it was a disappointing season for him. In a desperation move, he traded McCoy to me for Ray Rice and McCoy ended up sitting out the end of the season due to a concussion. McCoy finished as the 21st ranked Running Back and 65th overall ranked player. Not exactly what you expect from the #4 pick overall.
Hits/Misses Ratio 2/1-Another example of a high pick not panning out and thus dooming a season as Kenny would miss the playoffs last season.
Pick #5
2010-Michael Turner
2011-Arian Foster
2012-Drew Brees
Overview-Ryan took "The Burner" #5 overall in 2010 and though he finished last you can't blame Turner who was best offensive player outside of Peyton Manning. Arian Foster fell to Albert at the 5 spot in 2011 due to injury concerns (sound familiar??) and finsihed as the 4th best running back en route to Albert winning back to back titles. In her first draft, Mayra took Drew Brees, who scored one less than point than Aaron Rodgers, but with the depth of QB, might have been a questionable pick in the long run. She failed to make the playoffs.
Hits/Misses Ratio 3/0- For the first time, the #5 pick is the first pick that didn't fail to deliver, though it doesn't guarantee overall team success at all. Mayra and Ryan both finished dead last in their respective seasons while Albert won it all. Proof that more than a successful 1st round is needed to have a shot at success.
Pick #6
2010-Frank Gore
2011-Michael Turner
2012-Darren McFadden
Overview-The "Pick of Death" and it's obvious why. Ryan K. picked Frank Gore who wasn't great at all no playoffs. Michael Turner seemed like a reach at #6, but looking back he was actually pretty good, finishing #6 at the position. Darren McFadden though...wow one of the worst picks in 1st round history. Even when he wasn't missing games, he just sucked period. Even a 3rd round Adrian Peterson home run couldn't help Drew salvage his wasted #1 pick.
Hits/Misses Ratio 1/2- So far the worst slot of the 1st round. Kenny's looking to conquer the curse of #6 pick this year. History is not on his side.
Pick #7
2010-Andre Johnson
2011-Rashard Mendenhall
2012-Tom Brady
Overview-Mike took Andre Johnson, but I ended up getting him via trade. He was my best receiver and helped me to a 3rd place finish so I'd call that a win. Ryan auto-drafted Mendenhall and it wasn't good. He finished as the 19th best running back. Ryan still made the playoffs and finished 3rd despite that and the Peyton Manning draft pick (thanks to a key waiver wire Cam Newton Pickup). Albert took the 3rd QB of the 1st round in Tom Brady. It's Albert's go to QB, and though again like Mayra and Mike he might have waited and taken a better RB (lack of a 2nd RB after McGahee got hurt, basically cost him a three-peat) you can't argue with the results. Brady finished as the 4th best scorer in the league. 2nd place isn't too shabby either.
Hits/Misses Ratio 2/1- Luckily for Ryan the Mendenhall pick didn't destroy him, but it was definitely as whiff of epic proportions.
Pick #8
2010-Ryan Mathews
2011-Andre Johnson
2012-Calvin Johnson
Overview-Good lord in an 8 team league and to pick Ryan Mathews 8th overall, it has to be arguably the WORST first round pick made in the history of the league. He didn't even last on my roster and wasn't even on ANYONE'S roster and it was an 8 TEAM LEAGUE!!! Just brutal. Thanks to some shrewd trading and not only survived that debacle (and my 2nd round pick) but placed 3rd. I've hated that guy ever since and won't touch him no matter how much he falls. Andre Johnson in 2011....66th ranked WR that year. Preston Parker (WHO) was ranked higher. A combination of injuries and underachieving will do that to you. No playoffs for Cindy. And then...there's Calvin Johnson. Don't get me wrong he was a beast (I mean he broke Jerry Rice's season receiving yards record) but when you draft a receiver in the 1st round because he's supposed to be by far and away the best receiver out there and he only scores 6 more points than Brandon Marshall who was picked in like round 3, it's kind of disappointing. Lack of TD's (only 5) severely hurt Megatron's value. I didn't make the playoffs of course.
Hits/Misses Ratio 1/2- I want to but won't put Calvin as a miss. He still was #1 in scoring for receivers. The other two though?? Worst picks of the 1st round for their year and candidates for worst pick in 1st round history (with 2012 McFadden).
Pick #9
2011-Aaron Rodgers
2012-Cam Newton
Overview-2010 there were only 8 teams. We expanded to 10 in 2011. Kenny took Aaron Rodgers #9 overall in 2011 and yes it was steal there. Finished with the most points overall. He helped Kenny to his first playoff birth. Dad kind of shocked the world by taking Cam Newton #9 last season. I'd say it worked out. Despite a lack of consistent running back play, Newton helped lead Dad to a 2nd straight playoff birth and finished 5th overall in scoring.
Hits/Misses Ratio 2/0- Both #9 picks were QB's and for elite QB's, it's probably where it's ok to start thinking about taking one.
Pick #10
2011-LeSean McCoy
2012-Chris Johnson
Overview-How had at the #1 and #2 ranked running backs in 2011 and didn't win it all astounds me to this day. McCoy was the steal of the 1st round as I got him with the last pick of the 1st. He finished #2 and helped me to a 2nd place finish. It's crazy to call Chris Johnson a miss yet again and he's STILL a projected 2nd round pick this year. Again just like the Mendenhall pick, Ryan survived and finished 3rd overall. Chris Johnson bounced around a couple teams (I even had him for a little while).
Hits/Misses Ratio 1/1
So after all this typing, was does this tell you about the 1st round? Absolutely nothing really, ha. Don't get me wrong, the 1st round is important, but there are various examples of teams doing well in the 1st and having horrible seasons, or doing horrible in the 1st round and having great seasons, and vice versa. The 1st round is important, but it's not a guarantee to make or break your fantasy football season.
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