So it happens every year...I'm bad at forecasting and I really thought there was absolutely NO WAY a team with 6 wins could get in the playoffs. Well...I was wrong...believe it or not Me, Matt, and to an very very tiny extant Mark all still have slimmer than slim chances at sneaking in to the final playoff spot. It's going to take a LOT of help, but that fact that it's not 100% impossible is good enough for me as I like thinking I still have important football to play. So how can this be possible? Here's the breakdown.
Already Locked in
Ryan and Eugene have already officially locked up playoff spots. They are in.
Pretty Much Locked In
Mayra- Even if she loses out somehow, there are only two non playoff teams that can reach 7 wins, Leland and Drew. Even if Drew wins 7, his points aren't even CLOSE to getting him in. Leland's a little bit closer, but he'd have to win out and I think Mayra's 55 point advantage is going to be hard to make up in 2 weeks. Not seeing it. She also has the most points in the league so she still has an outside shot at the bye. If Ryan or Eugene were to lose out and she wins out, she'd have a pretty good shot at the bye with points being a tie breaker. As far as playoffs go though..she's a lock.
Get A Win And You're 100% In
Mike- Here's where it starts getting a little murky and possibilities can happen. Unlike Mayra, Mike's points are pretty low considering his record. He's in the same boat as Mayra, but if Mike loses out and Leland wins out, he could still technically be eliminated via points. Mike controls his own destiny as he plays Leland this week. If he wins one game in the next 2 he's fine and even if he somehow loses to Leland he gets Dad last. If not, and Leland wins out, and Mike stays at 7 wins, then he's hoping that either Alex loses out (he must stay at 6 wins because Alex's points lead is pretty big) or that Albert wins only 1 of 2 (Albert's points are less than Mike's and so Mike would still be in contention for the points tie breaker should this happen). With Leland's team in a tailspin and Dad winless I don't see Mike missing the playoffs, but it is still technically possible.
Next In Line
Alex- So right now Alex sits at #5 with 6 wins. Leland's not too behind in points so best case scenario for Alex is to win outright. If Alex splits and gets to 7 wins, he could still keep his spot by a ton of combinations. Mike Posey losing out keeps him in. Albert splitting or losing out also would keep Alex in due to points. Also Leland and Drew splitting their matchups would elminate them. If Alex loses out and stays at #6 wins, it means Albert would've beaten him in the last game of the season, which means Albert can't lose out to help him. He wouldn't have to worry about the 4-7 teams winning out to be get to 6 wins because he has a pretty solid points leads against all of us. So how does Alex win 6 games and still make the playoffs? If Drew splits his games, he'd get to 6 but he's not close to points. Leland and Alex are close enough in points that Alex losing outright and Leland even splitting his last two would give Leland a shot at making it over him. So the best case scenario if Alex loses out is Leland losing out as well with a chance at the points tie breaker if Leland splits.
Albert- Albert sits at 6 and he's kind of the most vulnerable because of his points. The fact the Leland and Me both have more points than him, and that Matt is only around 20 points behind him kinda forces Albert to win 1 of 2. Albert winning out ensures him a spot since none of the non playoff teams can catch him. If Albert splits and gets to 7, here's where the possibilities begin. With seven wins, his points wouldn't catch Mayra, he's close enough to Mike where he could force a tiebreaker in points should Mike lose out and Albert win 1 of 2. If Albert gets to 7 wins, he could also get in by Leland splitting his last two because if Leland got to 7 wins with Albert he can beat him easily with points. He could get in if Alex's loses outright because Alex has a commanding lead in points. 7 wins eliminates Drew (even if Drew were to tie 7 wins, he's not close enough for points) and all the 4 win teams. So if Albert loses out and stays at 6 wins it opens up the gates for the 4 win teams. At 6 wins, the ways Albert stays alive are one or a combination of these. Leland would have to lose out. Drew would have to split. I would have to split or if I did win out Albert would have to beat me by tiebreaker, same with Matt and lesser extent Mark.
A Shot...But It's Going To Take A Miracle
Leland- Leland can still get to 7 wins. If he does even Mike Posey's spot is in play. If Mike loses out and Leland wins out, Leland has a good shot to take it by points. Leland's close enough to Alex that if Alex splits his matchups and Leland wins out, he could have a chance at beating Alex by tiebreaker. 7 wins would also be enough to take care of Albert if Albert splits due to points. He'd eliminate Drew regardless if Drew tied him in wins thanks to a huge point lead. If Leland splits his matchups and gets to 6 wins he can get in by Alex losing outright and taking the points tie breaker or also by Albert losing outright, Leland would for sure take the tie breaker. Again Leland's got a big enough win to get to 6 wins and not worry about Drew and the 4 win teams. Leland losing outright eliminates him.
Drew- Drew gets grouped here solely based on his points. Drew can still finish with 7 wins. Mike and Mayra aren't affected by Drew because of his super low points. He'd honestly need Albert or Alex to lose out (both can't because they play each other Week 13) because it's the only he's making it on his points. At 7 wins, he 'd also need Leland to split, because of Leland got to 7, Drew's not making it. That's basically the only way Drew's getting in. Even splitting won't get him in due to points. One loss eliminates him.
It's going to take even MORE of a Miracle
Me/Matt/Mark- Yup...I know...I've been declaring myself out for weeks now, but guess what...it IS possible. How in the hell do I get in? Here's the only way I know how. I'd need to win out, Albert and Leland would need to lose out (Leland because of points) and Drew would need to split (hopefully beating Albert this week, then losing to Ryan next week). Also for extra security I'd probably need Matt to lose one, because if Matt swept too, it could go down to a points tie breaker. Odds are 1 in a million...but last I checked 1 is better than none. You can apply the same scenerios for Matt and Mark, but in Matt's case he's down points against me so he'd probably want me to lose one, and for Mark he's going to have to have the most productive weeks ever and have low scoring games from everyone mentioned to have a shot. But hey...if there's a way...it's still technically doable.
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