Saturday, November 17, 2018

Who's Getting In? A Look At The Playoff Race

This is one of my favorite posts to do as we're only 3 weeks away from the Fantasy Football Playoffs and technically nothing is concrete as far as playoffs go. In my opinion, there are still 10 teams that have some kind of shot to make it to the top 6. I've divided those teams in to tiers and here's how those 10 teams playoff outlook looks.


Basically In
Leland (No Soup For You)

Current Record: 7-3
Key Guys On Bye:  James White (Week 11) Nick Chubb (Week 11) Robert Woods (Week 12) Kareem Hunt (Week 12)

Remaining Schedule
Matt

Albert

Dad



There’s no doubt Leland’s getting in. He leads the league in points and tied for best record. He’s basically a lock for the playoffs and a shoo in for a bye. The slight concern would be Leland has a number of prominent players still having bye weeks, but Leland’s team is deep, he can seriously cover them all. Conservatively, one win should lock a playoff spot and with that schedule there’s no doubt he’ll get at least one.



Mark (Shock The Monkey)

Current Record: 7-3

Key Guys on Bye:  Tyreek Hill (Week 12) Travis Kelce (Week 12) Sammy Watkins (Week 12)

Remaining Schedule

Mike

Ryan

Drew



As the only other 7-3 team in the league, Mark’s on here by default. He’s coming off a high scoring week, but his season points are not great in the least for what his record is. He has a middle of the road schedule and already, this week is going to be a bigger fight than anticipated with Mike. Like Leland, one win should be enough to get him though there could be problems if he does somehow drop this week to Mike. Ryan's team isn't nearly as bad as his record shows (plus Mark will be down his 3 Chiefs in week 12) and Drew's team is suddenly a powerhouse I wouldn't be 100% confident in playing against. Regardless, I’d be surprised if Mark doesn’t get it by wins and take just one of those matchups, but in the event he drops 3 straight, it might be a little tough to get in points wise, but even then his record might come in to play if that happens.



Almost But Quite Not There

Eugene (Rocket Man)

Current Record: 6-4

Key Guys On Bye: Matt Breida (Week 11)

Remaining Schedule

Me

Kenny

Mike



So losing this past week has kind of opened up the small possibility that Eugene might be in trouble. Key word is “might” because I still think he ends up ok. His schedule is kinda rough, and the lack of A.J. Green doesn’t help (though it's looking like Green could be back as early as next week). It’s entirely possible Eugene drop all 3 weeks, but I seriously doubt that happens. With his points in tow, I believe one win should be enough to get the job done and make the playoffs. I just can’t see this team losing out.


The Next Three in

Honestly, after those three “near locks” it becomes damn near hard to speculate who can get in, especially with the new 6th seed scoring rule in effect. Here’s my opinion on who’s going to get in and get the final 3 spots.



Kenny (Scott’s Tots)

Current Record (4-6)

Key Guys On Bye: Julian Edelman (Week 11)

Remaining Schedule

Drew

Eugene

Matt

It’s crazy that I think the 6th seed is damn near closer to being locked up than the 4th and 5th seeds. So why do I give Kenny the edge over the rest of us? Out of the teams that I believe will be competing for the 6th seed via points, he has a comfortable nearly 30 point lead. With only 3 games left and the way his team is playing, I just don’t see him losing the points lead. He even still has an outside shot to just make the playoffs via record if he can win outright to get to 7 wins, though admittedly that schedule is pretty tough and Aaron Jones has already put him in a big hole against Drew. He could actually end up losing all 3 just as much as he can win them. Still having the points to fall back is very crucial and could be his ticket into the playoffs.



Matt (Light’s Broken Bots)

Current Record (6-4)

Key Guys On Bye: Josh Gordon (Week 11) Rob Gronkowski (Week 11) Duke Johnson (Week 11) George Kittle (Week 11) Frank Gore (Week 11) Tom Brady (Week 11) Patrick Mahomes (Week 12)

Remaining Schedule

Leland

Me

Kenny

Had Matt not lost to Alex this past week, I think he would’ve been on the near lock stage, but there’s gotta be a little bit of concern here as Matt does have a pretty tough schedule. Another thing hurting Matt is so many late season bye weeks. A lot of his team is on bye against Leland for Week 11, while in Week 12 he’ll have no Mahomes against me. I still give Matt the edge here because he can actually afford to drop 2 and still have a chance thanks to his points, but it wouldn’t be crazy at all if he dropped all 3 matchups and got stuck on 6 wins.



Alex (SCLSU MudDogs)

Current Record (6-4)

Key Guys on Bye: Isaiah Crowell (Week 11) LeSean McCoy (Week 11) Brandin Cooks (Week 12)

Remaining Schedule

Albert

Dad

Ryan

I still think Alex is one of the more vulnerable teams because of his points, but since he still has at least a game over me and Drew and his schedule isn’t that intimidating I put him as the final team in the playoffs. As thin as his roster is, having any guys on bye is going to be a hurdle, but he’s got the softest schedule of the teams vying for a playoff spot which means he should be competitive enough at the very least (though this week already looks like a lost cause). The way the season has been going for him, I just can't count him out because every time I think he should lose, he wins.  If he doesn’t pick up 2 or more wins though, he’ll be on the bubble because of his low points.



Still In The Hunt

The next tier is basically 2 teams I feel like could have a chance but need help and things to go their way

Drew (I Am Queens Blvd)

Current Record (5-5)

Key Guys on Bye:  Todd Gurley (Week 12)

Remaining Schedule

Kenny

Mike

Mark

I put Drew over me because I just don’t have confidence in my team and though I still have a slight lead in points over Drew, his team is trending upward with the emergence of Aaron Jones and reemergence of Dalvin Cook. Drew’s biggest gun is out Week 12 in Todd Gurley which could be a mild concern, but he’s facing Mike’s struggling team that week so he might be able to overcome it.  Kenny provides a challenge, but Mike and Mark seem like winnable matchups for Drew. I’d say he has a decent chance to maybe get in if he can win 2 out of 3 and get a couple of high scoring weeks under his belt he’ll also need either Matt or Alex to somehow drop out of the picture and lose.



Me (Rigmas Forever)

Current Record (5-5)

Key Guys On Bye: Sony Michel (Week 11)

Remaining Schedule

Eugene

Matt

Albert

After this past week’s shitty loss to Drew, I’ll never do optimism again because there’s never a reason to when it comes to Fantasy Football and my luck. I bet only 1% of total teams in Yahoo miss the playoffs with a team consisting of Cam Newton, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara, but here I am, about to miss the playoffs. Irony, that the playoff structure fucked me so many years (3 out of the 4 years I’ve missed the playoffs, I would’ve gotten in by points, it’s a reason why I wanted the rule change) and now that we finally change the rules, I’ll be the first one to get fucked because in the old system, I’m actually still 6th place and wouldn’t be as pessimistic about my playoff chances. Under the revised system, I’m “fake 6th” and really 7th because Kenny leads in points by a wide margin. So how do I get in? Easy..win out..you know, win 3 in a row, something I haven’t done all season (longest winning streak is 2, and I only did that once). Not to mention my schedule..the 3rd and 4th seeded guys in the playoffs back to back, then play a team that sucks, but blew me out and had their best game of the season against me in Week 2. Yeah..this isn’t happening. I’ll probably get a bye…in THE LOSER BRACKET and do my best to win that. Losing to Drew was a HUGE blow to my playoff chances. Because Yahoo is a sick and twisted entity OF COURSE I’m favored to win all 3 matchups! You know just like the other 8 times this year I have been favored (but wait..my record is 5-5 not 8-2?! HOW CAN THAT BE!?). Anyhow should shock of all shocks   Yahoo somehow be wrong in their projections, I can literally only afford to drop 1 game and then I’ll start needing help (Keeping my points up, and needing Drew to drop 1 game, Alex to drop 2 games, Matt to drop all 3 games etc). I wonder who’ll be available next year when I draft #1 overall (who am I kidding, I’ll end up losing that too)



The Longest Of Long Shots

Mike (Trump 2020)

Current Record (4-6)

Key Guys On Bye: Jarvis Landry (Week 11)

Remaining Schedule

Mark

Drew

Eugene

Basically only put Mike on here, because if he wins out he can get to 7 wins, but depending on points that might not even matter. So Mike had a tough start where his team played awesome but his team still lost, then went on a 4 game winning streak and really looked like his team was going to turn it around, before sputtering to a current 4 game losing streak. He’s fallen behind in points, just lost Cooper Kupp to a torn ACL, and has a pretty difficult schedule where he won’t be favored in any of the matchups (though he's starting this week off great after that Davante Adams play). It would take a ton of work and help for Mike to make it, but as small of a chance there is of that happening, it’s still a chance. Never say never.



Albert (Channel 4 News Team)

Current Record (4-6)

Key Guys On Bye: Kenyon Drake (Week 11) David Njoku (Week 11)

Remaining Schedule

Alex

Leland

Me

So Albert, like Mike, can still get to 7 wins, which technically keeps him alive, but he’s in way worse shape points wise than Mike is. Albert’s team is so perplexing, it’s like a poor man’s version of mine, where on paper, he has a crap load of talented guys, they’ve just been disappointing. These past two weeks, injuries and byes have really hurt Albert. His schedule looks Ok , except for Leland in the middle. Me and Alex are definitely winnable matchups (he already beat me in Week 2 with basically the same squad he has now and this week is looking like a shoo in win against Alex) but having to face Leland at his hottest probably will squash any chance he had in the playoffs. Even if he somehow gets survives and gets 7 wins, more than likely his ceiling is a fake 6th place finish. Still as long as points are the ultimate variable and the 7 wins threshold is still attainable, Albert’s still “in the running” but barely.



Dad and Ryan are the only two teams that are 100% out of it. They can only get to 6 wins if they win out and they don’t have the points to compete for the 6th seed.

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