Saturday, August 2, 2014

Was It Worth It? A look Last Years Top 2 Rounds


The decision to make our league a Keeper League last season was one of the biggest decisions of the league to date. It made last season's draft very critical. The ability to keep 2 players made drafting that much more important. Here's a look at last year's top 2 rounds and see if those picks in the grand scheme of things were worth being drafted as a possible keeper.

* notes player no longer on original team that drafted them.
**Originally drafted by Mike Posey who's no longer in the league


#1-CJ Spiller (Leland) 
                                                

Well, when you make a statement and go for the ultimate high risk/reward player you get C.J. Spiller. Last year Leland shocked the world by forgoing "safe" picks in Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Jamaal Charles, and LeSean

McCoy and taking Spiller #1 overall in our keeper league. It was basically an epic failure. Spiller was one of the biggest busts in fantasy football but in our league was the biggest bust in our league history considering his #1 pick status.

Keepability: Slim to none. Unless Leland reallllllly believes in Spiller and is stubborn, I see the #1 pick of last years draft being released into the draft pool. It's really a shame that Leland's more than likely moving on from his #1 pick but that's what happens when a huge gamble doesn't pay off.

#2 Adrian Peterson (Drew)
Drew owes Leland a HUGE thank you as he was able to draft Adrian Peterson (who Drew owned the previous season as well) with pick #2. Peterson slowed down near the end of the season due to injury and the Vikings not playing for anything but he should once again be one of the best running backs in the game for at least another season.

Keepability: 100% locked up. 


#3 Jamaal Charles (Matt)

Jamaal Charles slid to Matt at #3 and Matt didn't complain about the season Charles had. The top running back in fantasy circles, Charles is the main reason Matt has to look forward in rebounding from a disappointing season.

Keepability:100% locked up.

#4 LeSean McCoy (Me)

That championship belt symbolizes the championship trophy McCoy helped me win last season. McCoy had an amazing season for me, and won not only the Wane McGarity Bowl Finals MVP but Wane McGarity Bowl Stud of The Year. Before the draft, I was wondering who to go to between McCoy, Doug Martin, and Ray Rice. Thankfully I made the right choice.

Keepability: Trust me, he's not going anywhere.

#5 Ray Rice (Dad)
 
This seemed as safe as any pick. Rice has consistently been a top fight fantasy running back especially in PPR format. So Dad happily took him here at #5. Rice regressed TERRIBLY. He was god awful and Dad only started him because of the name factor. Dad won 3rd place DESPITE him. A brutal reminder on how you just never know from one year to the next when your skills are going to start declining.

Keepability: Slim to none. With a suspension looming on top on diminishing skills, I highly doubt Dad's going to want use a top 2 round pick on him unless he really believes he can bounce back. (That's two of the top 5 picks that didn't pan out)

#6 Doug Martin (Kenny*)
 
Kenny thought he got THE steal of the draft in Doug Martin. After a remarkable rookie season, it wasn't too crazy to believe Martin could be the #1 pick last season. Kenny was thrilled he dropped to #6 and envisioned keeping Martin for the long term. Unfortunately it didn't work out all as planned. Martin struggled before suffering a season ending injury. Kenny ended up dropping him and Albert shrewdly picked him up to stash as a potential keeper prospect. 

Keepability: A possibility. Albert's got a cluster of guys he can chose from and Martin is on that list. Hard to say either way if Martin survives the final cut. He might be back in the draft pool.

#7 Arian Foster (Alex**)
 
Alex inherits this pick. Foster was thought to had slid last season due to injury concerns but at the time even #7 seemed like a pretty damn good value pick. Unfortunately Foster wasn't completely healthy all season, and had a very mediocre season. Unlike Rice though, many people believe Foster has a great  chance of bouncing back and being a top 10 back.

Keepability: Very probable. Is he worth the risk? That's up to Alex and how much he believes in Foster. Not knowing his strategy, Foster isn't a 100% lock to be kept.

#8 Matt Forte (Mark)
 This was example of gamble paying off. Forte was slotted as 2nd round prospect, but Mark wanting to ensure getting him, took the risk and chose him here in what was thought to be a risk. It was very smart as Forte had one of the best seasons he's ever had. He's a top 5 back in redraft leagues and will be the player Mark builds him team around this upcoming season.

Keepability: Not a shred of doubt he's staying put with Mark.

#9 Trent Richardson (Eugene*)

Good god...how terrible Trent was. Even a change of scenery did NOTHING for T-Rich and he was so awful he just might be the first 1st round pick to be cut from a roster due to sucking and not injury in our league history (I'd have to research that). The crazy thing, Eugene was able to salvage value from him by trading him (though he turned two good trades down at first) to Kenny. Kenny then straight up dropped him. Drew picked him up as bench fodder towards the end of the season.

Keepability: FLAT OUT ZERO. No way in hell  Drew keeps him. No upside here whatsoever. 

#10 Marshawn Lynch (Ryan*)

Every year Marshawn Lynch is supposed to "drop off" and every year he churns out another excellent season. Ryan traded him to me and I traded to Mike so in turn Lynch's rights belong to Alex now. 

Keepability: Super high. I can't see Lynch being unkept, unless Alex has true concerns about regression for Lynch.

#11 Calvin Johnson (Mayra*)
 
Megatron has yet another dominating season.  Unfortunately for Mayra, she needed running back help really bad and ended up trading Calvin Johnson away in a trade for Knowshon Moreno and Antonio Bryant which helped out both teams. Kenny holds his rights now.

Keepability: 100%. Kenny's already confirmed Megatron is staying put.

#12 A.J. Green (Albert)
 Albert took Green with the final 1st round pick of the draft and he didn't disappoint. Green is a top 5 Wide Receiver and has to be a lock to be a keeper for Albert.

Keepability: Near 100%. I can't say for 100% certain he'll be kept just because Albert's got so many choices, but I'd be legit shocked if Green wasn't at the top of the list. 

#13 Alfred Morris (Albert)

I think many people expected Albert to go two elite WR here so it was a little shocking he took Alfred Morris over Dez Bryant. Morris though, didn't disappoint. He had a great season and he'll make Albert's choice that much harder.

Keepability: A possibility. This is the 3rd guy drafted in the top 14 last season that Albert owns the rights to. This doesn't include Peyton Manning and Le'Veon Bell. There's a real possibility Morris is thrown back into the draft pool.

#14 Dez Bryant (Mayra)

In a perfect world, Mayra would've kept her dream team combo of Calvin and Dez. Unfortunately a need at the RB position last year forced her to trade Calvin as she was in win now mode. Dez isn't a bad consolation prize at all though. Bryant's stock keeps rising year after year and he can legit contend with Calvin Johnson as the best receiver in fantasy football

Keepablity: Signed, sealed, delivered. He's definitely Mayra's #1 keeper.

#15 Stevan Ridley (Ryan)

I never bought into Ridley in the first place, and he proved me right. This pick was terrible. Ridley's fumbling problems reared its ugly head and he's inconsistent play costs him snaps throughout the season. He was a major reason Ryan started off poorly out of the gate.

Keepability: Near Zero. If Ryan keeps 2, I doubt Ridley's on that list of potential keepers. 

#16 Julio Jones (Eugene)
 Julio Jones was having an amazing season before a season ending foot injury ended his season. Eugene stashed him as a potential keeper as his upside is enormous.

Keepability: Very probable. Eugene also has DeMarco Murray and Gio Bernard to chose from. Injury concerns are real for both Murray and Jones.

#17 Steven Jackson (Mark)

As great as the  Forte pick was, this wasn't so great. Jackson struggled with injuries and wasn't as effective as he had been in St. Louis.

Keepability: Highly unlikely. I seriously doubt Mark's keeping S-Jax.his days as an elite RB are clearly over.

#18 Brandon Marshall (Alex* **)
Marshall once again put up a monster season, and a late season trade for him by me was a huge reason why I won the title. He'll once again be a no brainer top fantasy wide receiver in that high octane Bears offense.

Keepability: Tricky...this where it personally sucks to have too much talent. There's a real possibility I don't keep him. I have Montee Ball as well who's due for a breakout as Denver's #1 running back. Marshall is a game changer and could be one of the most coveted picks in the draft if I let him go. It's gonna be a tough decision to make either way.


#19 Demaryius Thomas (Kenny)

Kenny struck gold in the 2nd round with this pick. Thomas was amazing last season and the 1-2 punch of Megatron-Thomas helped Kenny get to the Finals last season. Thomas is in the discussion for best WR in fantasy football.

Keepability: Kenny's not messing around and playing games. Thomas is his keeper. He won't have to worry about drafting until round #3.

#20 Jimmy Graham (Dad)
 

Jimmy Graham established himself as far and away the BEST Tight End in Fantasy Football. He's the only tight end that can legit compete in scoring with WR's. As bad as Dad's 1st round was, Dad's 2nd round more than made up for it.

Keepability: 100%. You don't let a guy like Graham go.

#21 Larry Fitzgerald (Me*)

Fitzgerald had a great season after finally having a legit QB throwing to him in Carson Palmer. I didn't get to use him much as I traded him away to Ryan. Ryan didn't have many bright spots but Fitz was definitely one.

Keepability: Possible. Here's Ryan situation. He'll more than likely keep Eddie Lacy, which leaves Fitz and Julius Thomas as potential keepers. Does he go with a consistent player in Fitz or go with Julius Thomas a legit top 3 (even 2) tight end which is a position that's the weakest of the skill positions?

#22 Maurice Jones-Drew (Matt)

 MJD was already declining and he once again had a terrible season. Now it'll get worse as he left Jacksonville to go to Oakland. He'll be splitting time with equally disappointing Darren McFadden this season.

Keepability: Zero. MJD is flat out done being even an RB 2 anymore. No way Matt even entertains the possibility of keeping him.

#23 Reggie Bush (Drew)
So the "Dream Team" didn't work out quite as planned. It doesn't mean Bush was terrible. I don't think people thought Joique Bell would be involved as much as he's been. In a PPR league, Bush still has tremendous upside.

Keepability: Probable. Since this is a PPR league, there's a solid chance Drew gives the Bush/Peterson combo another go. It's not a lock though as it was thought to be last season.

#24 Chris Johnson (Leland*)
CJ2K didn't even play a single down for Leland. He was immediately traded to Kenny in a package involving Matthew Stafford. Johnson was then traded to Eugene along with Kenbrell Thompkins for Trent Richardson..Johnson WAS THEN traded yet again to me for Ryan Mathews. Johnson was perfectly suitable as a RB #2. 

Keepability: Zero. I wouldn't be able to keep anyway due to depth but after a trade to the Jets where he's probably going to be splitting time, there's no way Chris Johnson is keepable anymore.

So out of the top 24 players drafted here's breakdown in terms of keepability.

100% keepable-8
Very High-2
Possible-7
Slim to None-4
ZERO-3

No comments:

Post a Comment