A Look At How the 1st Round has Panned Out

1st Round Picks...the pick that's supposed to be the "main cog" of your fantasy football team. The "franchise player" so to speak. Whiff on this pick and you'll find yourself at a huge disadvantage from the get go. Or is it? Can you whiff on a first round pick and still draft well enough with the rest of the draft to salvage your team? We'll look at the first 3 year's of 1st round picks and see how exactly important the first round has been in our league.

Pick #1
2010- Chris Johnson
2011- Adrian Peterson
2012-Aaron Rodgers

Overview- Having the #1 overall pick is big time pressure as the expectations are raised since you have the pick of the "cream of the crop". In our first year, Drew took Chris Johnson at #1 and rode him to the finals. Outside of his QB, he was the highest scorer on his team so this was definitely a home run pick and one of the biggest reasons Drew made the Championship game. The next season Matt took Adrian Peterson. Unfortunately, Peterson got hurt and though he finished as a top 10 running back (8) 7 running backs ended up having a greater impact that season and Matt finished with a 5-8 record en route to a 9th place finish overall. Last season Mike "shocked" the league and took Aaron Rodgers #1 overall. Here's where you can look at it a couple ways. Was Rodgers an insane reach? No, not at all. In fact, last year was the "Year of the QB" so to speak and almost half the first round were QB's. Rodgers finished with the 2nd most fantasy points in the league and with a #3 overall ranking. However, it's all about relative value. There were 11 QB's that finished in the top 16 overall last year. Maybe going with a RB there would've been much more value, then getting a position in really deep position. Mike did make the playoffs, however maybe he could've made it a little farther had he gone with another position at the #1 overall pick.

Hits/Misses Ratio- 2/1- I'll only include Peterson as a miss because of the injury.

Pick #2
2010-Adrian Peterson
2011-Chris Johnson
2012-Ray Rice

Overview: Kenny had #2 in 2010 and took Adrian Peterson. He would trade him to me for Arian Foster and Greg Jennings, and on my team helped me make the playoffs and win 3rd place. In his first ever draft Dad took Chris Johnson (coming off a holdout) over guys like Ray Rice, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy. Johnson was HORRIBLE compared to his draft position. 16 running backs finished ahead of him and he finished with a 43rd ranking overall. How Dad made the playoffs whiffing that badly was surprising indeed. Last season Leland took Ray Rice, but shipped him to me. He was slightly disappointing compared to his draft position. I ended up trading him to Kenny. He still finished top 6 at the position, so I wouldn't call a complete bust, but the team that traded him won the title, while me and Kenny both finished out of the playoffs with him in our roster.

Hits/Misses Ratio 2/1- Rice wasn't horrible enough to consider a bust the 2 though he did underachieve for his standards. Chris Johnson though..ugh yeah not worthy of a 1st round pick much less #2 overall.

Pick #3
2010-Maurice Jones Drew
2011-Jamaal Charles
2012-Arian Foster

Overview- MJD was Matt's inaugural pick at #3 in 2010. He led all of Matt's non QB Skill Players in points scored and helped Matt to a Playoff Berth. Zach took Jamaal Charles at #3 and an early season injury derailed Zach's season from the get go. He never recovered. Matt once again picked #3 and got Arian Foster who helped him to a 1st place regular season finish and another playoff berth.

Hits/Misses Ratio 2/1- To me a player is successful if he's a big time contributor to his team. I can't remember what MJD finished overall in 2010, but he was Matt's best offensive player that season outside of his QB's. Jamaal Charles is proof that a high pick not panning out due to injury/underperformance can kill your season dead. Zach was never a real threat after losing Charles. Foster was another hit at 3 for Matt, and maybe had Matt made a trade with his overabundance of RB"s he might have won his 1st playoff game with the team he had.

Pick #4
2010-Ray Rice
2011-Ray Rice
2012-LeSean McCoy

Overview-Here's something crazy, I ended up with all 3 of these guys the year they were drafted at the end of the day. Albert took Rice at 4 and would trade him to me late in the season. I got stuck with a three headed Monster of Rice/Peterson/McFadden (believe it or not scored more points than Ray Rice that year) which was great up until you bench the wrong guy. Albert would solidify the rest of his team with that trade and end up winning the title. Again Rice went #4 to Leland and I traded for him yet again. Rice was the #1 ranked running back in 2011 by a comfortable margin and he helped me make the finals in 2011. Kenny took Shady after his 20 TD season and unfortunately it was a disappointing season for him. In a desperation move, he traded McCoy to me for Ray Rice and McCoy ended up sitting out the end of the season due to a concussion. McCoy finished as the 21st ranked Running Back and 65th overall ranked player. Not exactly what you expect from the #4 pick overall.

Hits/Misses Ratio 2/1-Another example of a high pick not panning out and thus dooming a season as Kenny would miss the playoffs last season.

Pick #5
2010-Michael Turner
2011-Arian Foster
2012-Drew Brees

Overview-Ryan took "The Burner" #5 overall in 2010 and though he finished last you can't blame Turner who was best offensive player outside of Peyton Manning. Arian Foster fell to Albert at the 5 spot in 2011 due to injury concerns (sound familiar??) and finsihed as the 4th best running back en route to Albert winning back to back titles. In her first draft, Mayra took Drew Brees, who scored one less than point than Aaron Rodgers, but with the depth of QB, might have been a questionable pick in the long run. She failed to make the playoffs.

Hits/Misses Ratio 3/0- For the first time, the #5 pick is the first pick that didn't fail to deliver, though it doesn't guarantee overall team success at all. Mayra and Ryan both finished dead last in their respective seasons while Albert won it all. Proof that more than a successful 1st round is needed to have a shot at success.

Pick #6
2010-Frank Gore
2011-Michael Turner
2012-Darren McFadden

Overview-The "Pick of Death" and it's obvious why. Ryan K. picked Frank Gore who wasn't great at all no playoffs. Michael Turner seemed like a reach at #6, but looking back he was actually pretty good, finishing #6 at the position. Darren McFadden though...wow one of the worst picks in 1st round history. Even when he wasn't missing games, he just sucked period. Even a 3rd round Adrian Peterson home run couldn't help Drew salvage his wasted #1 pick.

Hits/Misses  Ratio 1/2- So far the worst slot of the 1st round. Kenny's looking to conquer the curse of #6 pick this year. History is not on his side.

Pick #7
2010-Andre Johnson
2011-Rashard Mendenhall
2012-Tom Brady

Overview-Mike took Andre Johnson, but I ended up getting him via trade. He was my best receiver and helped me to a 3rd place finish so I'd call that a win. Ryan auto-drafted Mendenhall and it wasn't good. He finished as the 19th best running back. Ryan still made the playoffs and finished 3rd despite that and the Peyton Manning draft pick (thanks to a key waiver wire Cam Newton Pickup). Albert took the 3rd QB of the 1st round in Tom Brady. It's Albert's go to QB, and though again like Mayra and Mike he might have waited and taken a better RB (lack of a 2nd RB after McGahee got hurt, basically cost him a three-peat) you can't argue with the results. Brady finished as the 4th best scorer in the league. 2nd place isn't too shabby either.

Hits/Misses Ratio 2/1- Luckily for Ryan the Mendenhall pick didn't destroy him, but it was definitely as whiff of epic proportions.

Pick #8
2010-Ryan Mathews
2011-Andre Johnson
2012-Calvin Johnson

Overview-Good lord in an 8 team league and to pick Ryan Mathews 8th overall, it has to be arguably the WORST first round pick made in the history of the league. He didn't even last on my roster and wasn't even on ANYONE'S roster and it was an 8 TEAM LEAGUE!!! Just brutal. Thanks to some shrewd trading and not only survived that debacle (and my 2nd round pick) but placed 3rd. I've hated that guy ever since and won't touch him no matter how much he falls. Andre Johnson in 2011....66th ranked WR that year. Preston Parker (WHO) was ranked higher. A combination of injuries and underachieving will do that to you. No playoffs for Cindy. And then...there's Calvin Johnson. Don't get me wrong he was a beast (I mean he broke Jerry Rice's season receiving yards record) but when you draft a receiver in the 1st round because he's supposed to be by far and away the best receiver out there and he only scores 6 more points than Brandon Marshall who was picked in like round 3, it's kind of disappointing. Lack of TD's (only 5) severely hurt Megatron's value. I didn't make the playoffs of course.

Hits/Misses Ratio 1/2- I want to but won't put Calvin as a miss. He still was #1 in scoring for receivers. The other two though?? Worst picks of the 1st round for their year and candidates for worst pick in 1st round history (with 2012 McFadden).

Pick #9
2011-Aaron Rodgers
2012-Cam Newton

Overview-2010 there were only 8 teams. We expanded to 10 in 2011. Kenny took Aaron Rodgers #9 overall in 2011 and yes it was steal there. Finished with the most points overall. He helped Kenny to his first playoff birth. Dad kind of shocked the world by taking Cam Newton #9 last season. I'd say it worked out. Despite a lack of consistent running back play, Newton helped lead Dad to a 2nd straight playoff birth and finished 5th overall in scoring.

Hits/Misses Ratio 2/0- Both #9 picks were QB's and for elite QB's, it's probably where it's ok to start thinking about taking one.

Pick #10
2011-LeSean McCoy
2012-Chris Johnson

Overview-How had at the #1 and #2 ranked running backs in 2011 and didn't win it all astounds me to this day. McCoy was the steal of the 1st round as I got him with the last pick of the 1st. He finished #2 and helped me to a 2nd place finish. It's crazy to call Chris Johnson a miss yet again and he's STILL a projected 2nd round pick this year. Again just like the Mendenhall pick, Ryan survived and finished 3rd overall. Chris Johnson bounced around a couple teams (I even had him for a little while).

Hits/Misses Ratio 1/1

So after all this typing, was does this tell you about the 1st round? Absolutely nothing really, ha. Don't get me wrong, the 1st round is important, but there are various examples of teams doing well in the 1st and having horrible seasons, or doing horrible in the 1st round and having great seasons, and vice versa. The 1st round is important, but it's not a guarantee to make or break your fantasy football season.

Draft Profile Capsules: Picks 9-12

Picks 9-12 now.

#9 Eugene (Sprigville_Warrior)
No Previous Draft History

The new guys pick back to back in our draft would should be pretty interesting. We'll see what Eugene does with a late 1st round pick.

#10 Ryan (Hoosier Daddy)
Previous Draft Spots- 5 in 2010
                                    7 in 2011
                                   10 in 2012

# of Drafted Players who Stayed on Ryan's Team
5 in 2010 (out of 15)
6 in 2011 (out of 15)
5 in 2012 (out of 15)

Previous 1st Round Picks
2010-Michael Turner
2011-Rashard Mendenhall
2012-Chris Johnson

Playoff Appearances-2 (3rd place finish in 2011, 3rd place finish in 2012)

It's kinda crazy that Ryan basically whiffed on his first 5 picks (actually 8 of his first 10) and STILL finished 3rd. He did strike Gold with Peyton Manning in the 7th round and Witten in the 11th, but man it was draft full of disappointments. He did make a trade for Reggie Wayne, and picked Denario Alexander off waivers, but this team was mainly fueled by Peyton Manning. Ryan picks 10 again and his 1st rounds have been very sketchy. He'll need to hit a home run with his 1st round to finally get over that 3rd place hump.

#11 Mayra (Bigger Balls)
Previous Draft Spots- 5 in 2012

# of Drafted Players who Stayed with team
10 in 2012 (out of 15)

# of Playoff Appearances-0

Mayra actually had a very stable team keeping 10 out of 15 original draft picks and only making one trade, trading Ryan for Michael Turner.  She excellent value in Frank Gore in the 5th round, but Ryan Mathews in the 2nd was  HUGE disappointment. In her sophomore season, she drafted at the tail end this time so we'll see how she adjusts in this situation.

#12 Albert (Channel 4 News Team)
Previous Draft Spots- 4 in 2010
                                    5 in 2011
                                    7 in 2012
# of Drafted Players who Stayed on Albert's Team
3 in 2010 (out of 15)
8 in 2011 (out of 15)
5 in 2012 (out of 15)

Previous 1st round picks
2010-Ray Rice
2011-Arian Foster
2012-Tom Brady

# of Playoff Appearances-3 (2010, 2011 Wane McGarity Bowl Champion, 2012 runner up)

If there's anyone I'm scared of drafting at this position it's Albert. It WILL WORK for him. Last year I showed how stupid I was by calling Albert's draft the worst of the league. DEAD WRONG. He hit big time on 6 of the first 7. If not for injuries to Bowe and McGahee, Albert might have 3-peated. He ended up having to spot start the RB2 towards the end, but having a team of Brady, Graham, Marshall, Demaryius, and Trent Richardson was lethal. I have no doubt, he'll be successful at this spot.

We are 9 days away from the draft!!! Can't believe it's almost here! 

Draft Profile Capsules Picks 5-8

Time to look at the teams picking 5-8

#5 Dad (The Bad Robofies)
Previous Draft Sports- 2 In 2011
                                     9 In 2012
# of Drafted Players who stayed on Dad's Team
7 in 2011 (out of 15)
7 in 2012 (out of 15)

Previous 1st round Picks
2011-Chris Johnson
2012-Cam Newton

Playoff Appearances-2

Dad now has two seasons of Fantasy Football under his belt, and has experienced both picking low and high. This year, he's in the middle at #5. Dad shocked everyone by taking Cam Newton in Round 1 last year, but in the middle of the draft this year, I expect a conservative safe approach. Dad's weakness is probably his late round drafting. He kept his first 6 picks of the draft, but rounds 7-15, only Matt Schaub was there at the end. You never know what you're gonna get with Dad, and his drafting affects me and Kenny who he is sandwiched in between.

#6 Kenny (Not Even Lying)
Previous Draft Spots- 2 in 2010
                                    9 in 2011
                                    4 in 2012

# of Drafted Players who stayed on Kenny's Team

4 in 2010 (out of 15)
6 in 2011 (out of 15)
3 in 2012 (out of 15)

Previous 1st Round Picks
2010-Adrian Peterson
2011-Aaron Rodgers
2012-LeSean McCoy

# of Playoff Appearances-1

Kenny's like me, a wheeler and a dealer. Kenny overturned his team a lot last season as evidenced by only keeping 3 of original draft picks on his roster (Romo, Jamaal Charles, Miles Austin). Kenny is smack dab in the middle of the draft this year, and the real key for him is what Dad's gonna do at #5. Dad's unpredictability makes it hard to game plan as he could go so many different ways at that position. Kenny's got an eye for talent too, so he's a dangerous late round drafter (though he didn't keep him, he did draft Randall Cobb in the 13th round. It never really matters where Kenny picks, as he'll find a way to draft a solid team. Keeping it intact though, is another question entirely.

#7 Mike (Passion ofthe Puente)
Previous Draft Spots-7 in 2010
                                   6 in 2011
                                   1 in 2012

# of  Drafted Players who stayed on Mike's Team
5 in 2010 (out of 15)
4 in 2011 (out of 15)
3 in 2012 (out of 15)

Previous 1st Round picks
2010-Andre Johnson
2011-Michael Turner
2012-Aaron Rodgers

# of Playoff Appearances-1

How Mike made the playoffs with his team is beyond me. First all of all, he just flat out dropped Vincent Jackson after 1 game. V-Jax ended up with a terrific season that Dad enjoyed off waivers. He took Aaron Rodgers at #1, which was shocking, but not absurd. Unfortunately though Rodgers was great, but wasn't #1 pick great. He lost his 2nd pick (MJD) to a season ending injury and made a series of trades with the rest of his roster. The one bright spot though was Dez Bryant, a STEAL, at round 4. Mike's in the middle of this year's draft, right around where he drafted the previous two seasons before last year.

#8 Mark (Shock The Monkey)
No Previous Draft History

Mark is one of the two new guys in our draft. Should be interesting to see how he approaches his first draft with us. I have no idea what to expect here.

Draft Profile Capsules Picks 1-4

Time for the annual draft capsule posts. We'll start with picks 1-4 today.

#1 Leland (TEBOW4PRESIDENT)
Previous Draft Spots-4 in 2011
                                   2 in 2012

# of Drafted Players who stayed on Leland's Team
6 in 2011 (out of 15)
5 in 2012 (out of 15)

Previous 1st Round Picks
2011-Ray Rice
2012-Ray Rice

# of Playoff Appearances-2 (2012 League Champion)

Well, you can't have a better start as the defending league champion than owning the #1 pick. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess the Ray Rice streak will end this year. Both times Leland has drafted Ray Rice and both times he's traded him to me. Leland is very active as you can tell by the number of players he kept the last couple of years. Last year's CJ Spiller/Doug Martin will be impossible to duplicate since both are projected 1st rounders this year. With all players at his choosing, it will be very interesting to see where Leland goes at pick #1.

#2 Drew (I'm a Paul Heyman Guy)
Previous Draft Spots- 1 in 2010
                                    6 in 2012

# of Drafted Players who Stayed on Drew's Team
 6 in 2010 (out of 15)
 8 in 2012 (out of 15)

Previous 1st round Picks
2010-Chris Johnson
2012-Darren McFadden

# of Playoff Appearances-1(2nd Place in 2010)

Talk about missing big time and striking gold in the same draft. Last year at #6 Drew picked Darren McFadden and it was a horrible pick to say the least. He did though get Adrian Peterson in Round 3 which was by far one of the biggest steals of last season. Drew's a guy who doesn't trade often and he kept around half his team that he drafted. He's usually a good talent evaluator and also scours the waivers for key pickups (like Cecil Shorts) He'll draft #2 this time around and the last time he drafted top 3, he made it to the finals.

#3 Matt (Dr. Light's Robots)
Previous Draft Spots-3 in 2010
                                   1 in 2011
                                   3 in 2012

# of Drafted Players who stayed on Matt's Team
6 in 2010 (out of 15)
11 in 2011 (out of 15)



8 in 2012 (out of 15)

Previous 1st Round Picks
2010-Maurice Jones Drew
2011-Adrian Peterson
2012-Arian Foster

# of Playoff Appearances-2

For the 4th year in a row, Matt secures a top 3 pick. Even though he's been in the league every year, Matt's still a wild card because we haven't seen him draft. This should be the 1st year Matt picks his own team, and with a top 3 pick, he'll have a great shot and getting a franchise player. Matt also tends to keep the players he has from the beginning of the season. In fact, he would've kept 10 players out of 15 had Michael Vick and Percy Harvin not gotten hurt.

#4 ME (Danny's Little Giants)
 Previous Draft Spots- 8 in 2010
                                  10 in 2011
                                    8 in 2012
# of Drafted Players who stayed on my team

4 in 2010 (out of 15)
3 in 2011 (out of 15)
3 in 2012 (out of 15)

Previous 1st Round Picks
2010-Ryan Mathews
2011-LeSean McCoy
2012-Calvin Johnson

Playoff Appearances-2 (3rd place finish in 2010, 2nd place finish in 2011)

For the first time in our league I'm not picking in the bottom (though I damn missed the top 3 but one spot). Last year was miserable, due to injuries and probably my weak spot of player turnover. I can never be satisified with my team. Calvin Johnson, Matt Forte, and Antonio Gates were the only players I kept all season. I've never kept more than 4 so my teams are never stable and consistent. Will I work on this this year? We'll see. I'm a pretty good late round drafter (look at rounds #6-12, Matt Ryan, Garcon, Reggie Wayne, Stevan Ridley, RGIII, and Spiller in round 12) but I usually sell on the hot player before they make any real impact on my team. It's be interesting to see how I can build my team from the beginning of the draft instead of the end.